REAL - TIME MESOSCALE MODELING OVER ANTARCTICA The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System

NOVEMBER 2003 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | L ogistical and scientific operations in Antarctica are critically dependent on numerical weather guidance. The extreme, unforgiving environment amplifies the risks stemming from poor forecasts, while the sparse observing network often leaves forecasters heavily reliant on numerical weather prediction (NWP). To the operation of real-time mesoscale (i.e., limited area) models, Antarctica likewise presents unique challenges. The difficulties include poor first-guess and boundary condition sources, the shortage of conventional meteorological observations over the continent and Southern Ocean, and the polar atmosphere itself, to which models generally have not been tuned. In September 2000, the Antarctic Mesoscale Predication System (AMPS; Powers et al. 2001) began providing numerical forecasts for Antarctica (see Fig. 1) REAL-TIME MESOSCALE MODELING OVER ANTARCTICA The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*